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Bulletin of Abai KazNPU. Series of Physical and mathematical sciences

ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN THE CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTIES

Published March 2022

175

147

Ch .K. Kussainov +
Kazakh National Research Technical University named after K. I. Satpayev
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1269-5781
D.N. Shukayev+
Kazakh National Research Technical University named after K. I. Satpayev, Almaty, Kazakhstan
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0433-6938
Kazakh National Research Technical University named after K. I. Satpayev
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Ch .K. Kussainov

Chingiz Kusainov is a doctoral student and lecturer at the Institute of Automation and Information Technologies, Kazakh National Research Technical University named after K.I. Satpayev. His research interests include information systems, computer modeling, analytical systems and data science. He has published scientific articles in national and international journals, conference proceedings.

Kazakh National Research Technical University named after K. I. Satpayev, Almaty, Kazakhstan
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D.N. Shukayev

Dulat Shukaev is a Doctor of Technical Sciences and
a Professor at the Satbayev University (KazNITU), Almaty, Kazakhstan. His
research interests include fundamentals of computer modelling, simulation
modelling, analysis and modelling of information processes, methods of
decision making in IS, computer simulation theory and applied optimisation
methods. He is an author of 223 scientific articles including 31 with impact
factor listed in Thomson Reuters, Scopus and RSCI databases.

Abstract

This article discusses methods from the theory of games with nature for the analysis of scenarios of investment projects in conditions of uncertainty based on the ranking method. Among the methods of game theory, the criterion of Maximax, Hurwitz, Laplace, Wald, Savage and Bayes is used. It is worth highlighting the use of the universal gamma distribution of random variables when using the Hurwitz criterion. The Borda voting method is used as a ranking method. The following financial indicators are considered as input data for the algorithm: net present value, internal rate of return, profitability index, payback period and return on investment. As a result, a hybrid algorithm for choosing an effective investment project is proposed based on scenario analysis, ranking method and game theory methods. As a demonstration of the results of the hybrid algorithm, a test set of empirical data was used.

pdf (Русский)
Language

Русский

How to Cite

[1]
Кусаинов, Ч. and Шукаев, Д. 2022. ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN THE CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTIES. Bulletin of Abai KazNPU. Series of Physical and mathematical sciences. 77, 1 (Mar. 2022), 24–32. DOI:https://doi.org/10.51889/2022-1.1728-7901.03.